By Don Donatello
The fight between Shane Mosley and Antonio Margarito was very misleading. Mosley’s win over Margarito made him look like he was a giant killer. When Margarito fought Shane, Margarito was mentally and psychologically shaken due to the discovery of his illegal hand wraps; his mind was a 1,000 away from the fight. Plus Margarito had trouble making the welterweight limit of 147 pounds. Margarito had to lose 35 pounds in 7 weeks to make the 147 pound welterweight limit. Do the math, that’s 5 pounds per week that Margarito had to lose.
READ PART 1: HERE
Shane at 147 does not hit harder than Margarito who weighed 165 pounds. Hitting upward on an opponent robs the power of a punch, Margarito is 5′ 11” and Shane is only 5′ 9” in height. Mosley’s tendency to stick out and probe with his left hand is perfect for Pacquiao to land his lead right. Mosley also keeps his lead right hand very low. In Mosley’s fight with Cotto, he was constantly being hit with punches coming through the middle.
Look for Manny to score big and often with straight left and right hooks.
I was debating with myself whether to give Mosley a 0.1% chance to win or 0.05%.
People are now writing that Mosley can win and possibly even knock out Pacquiao. That’s a good thing. It will bring in the casual fans and create a buzz for the fight. With that said, Mosley has almost the same chance that Margarito had against Pacquiao. If you remember in my past article, I said Margarito had a 0.1% chance of beating Pacquiao. I said that if Margarito threw 1000 punches in a 12 round fight with Pacquiao, he must land one lucky punch that knocks out Pacquiao in order to win.
They all said it before they fought Pacquiao. In order; David Diaz, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto, Joshua Clottey, and finally, Antonio Margarito all said that they have the edge in size and power to beat and possibly even knockout Manny Pacquiao. Shane Mosley, Pacquiao’s next opponent on May 7, is also saying the same thing. Mosley said he is bigger and stronger than Pacquiao. Mosley differentiates himself by claiming he has something that past Pacquiao opponents does not have, hand speed. Mosley is partially correct on that point.
Mosley is bigger, Mosley is also stronger than Pacquiao, and he does have fast hands too.
I did not see Mosley out speed Cotto in their fight, which Mosley loss in a 12 round unanimous decision. I also did not see Mosley muscling Cotto around with his claimed size, strength, and power. The same Miguel Cotto was out sped and out muscled by a smaller Manny Pacquiao.
I did not see Mosley effectively use his claimed speed in his last fight against Sergio Mora, which fight ended in a draw. Mosley could not use his speed to put together an effective combination on Mora with consistency. Aside from two handed power and speed, what separates Pacquiao from everyone else is his timing and reactive reflexes.
If Mosley doesn’t run, Sugar Shane Mosley is not going to make it to round 12. Shane might suddenly realize that he can’t win after the 9nth round and decide to run like Cotto did.
Let me premise this. If a 165 pound Margarito cannot knockout Pacquiao, how is the power of a much smaller Shane Mosley going to do it? A 165 pound Margarito hits harder than Mosley who enters the ring at 155 pounds or smaller. And if Mosley decides to come in heavier than 155 pounds, then he will further lose in the speed game and becomes more vulnerable. Additionally, Margarito covers up better than Mosley does. In all of his fights, Mosley’s lead left hand is held at shoulder level. Mosley will be open for Pacquiao’s patented lead right jab/hook punch.
When a southpaw and an orthodox style fight each other, the most effective punch is a straight punch thrown straight through the middle. And the second would be a right or left hook over the outstretched lead hand of the opponent. Pacquiao has both of those punches and Mosley does not. Mosley’s most effective punches are wide left and wide right hook. Mosley has a tendency to lead with his head first when he throws them. That will be something the Freddie Roach will not miss and will use it to exploit Mosley.
Mosley is using their common opponent in Margarito as evidence that he will beat Pacquiao. Said Mosley:
“Watching the fight between Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito, I was kind of surprised at how many times Margarito was able to hit Manny Pacquiao, being that when me and Margarito fought, he didn’t land that many shots on me. I didn’t get that many bruises or lumps or anything. That was just very surprising, And I know that Margarito, being able to land those types of shots, I should be able to land some good shots as well, being that I’m a lot faster.”
Mosley scored a 9th round knockout over Margarito in January of 2007. Pacquiao won every round in his fight against Margarito in route to a unanimous decision.
On the surface and to the casual fan, it may look like Mosley has got a valid point. It is true that Pacquiao was hit more often than Mosley in their fight against Margarito. And Mosley did knock out Margarito while Pacquiao did not. But there are many underlying causes and events on why those things transpired.
The Margarito that fought Pacquiao would have worn out Mosley and possibly stop him. After a long and helpful rest that was followed by a well timed tune up bout prior to his fight with Pacquiao, Margarito was in the best shape of his life, mentally, physically, and psychologically. He was a man on a mission; his mind was extremely focused and he was mentally prepared for a war. This was his second chance at a career that he thought was over and done. You could not say those about the Margarito that fought Mosley; on the contrary, Margarito was a mental wreck after having been discovered with loaded gloves. Mosley fought a distracted, unfocused, and mentally wrecked Antonio Margarito. He also struggled to make weight throughout his training camp as Nacho Beristain has claimed.
Let’s put the Margarito that fought Shane Mosley against Manny Pacquiao. There would be no 17 pound advantage for Margarito, he would be mentally unstable, emotionally wrecked, and out of focus. If Pacquiao was able to hurt a Margarito that was 17 pounds bigger, totally focused, and in the best shape of his life, what do you think Manny would do to an out of focus, unstable, much smaller, and weaker Margarito?
Now let us reverse it to have Margarito in top form with a 17 pound advantage over Mosley. Margarito would have superior strength, size, and stamina over Mosley. I’m confident that Mosley would not be able to overcome Margarito’s 17 pound weight advantage.
On Showtime’s promotional program, Fight Camp 360, Mosley said, “. . . especially in this fight, I will not be denied.” Let me ask Shane this. You will not be denied what? Like former baseball star and steroid user Mark McGwire, Shane has misremembered some things of recent past, particularly his last two fights. He was denied a win against Floyd Mayweather, and he was also denied in his last fight against Sergio Mora which ended up in a draw. But now Mosley is stating that he will not be denied against the best fighter of the era and possibly the greatest fighter ever, Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao. Actually, Shane is just doing his job, and that is selling the fight. For all that money he will be getting for the fight, he can accept looking like a fool after Pacquiao stops him. Its the same old, same old. They talk, get pummeled by Pacquiao, and then get paid.
Prediction: It will be a relatively contentious fight in the early rounds, similar to the Cotto/Pacquiao fight, but Mosley will have a very bad night. He will be hit consistently with Pacquiao’s two main weapons, the straight left through the middle and the lead right hook/jab. By around the 9th round, Mosley will be ripe for the picking. His face will resemble a black and blue eggplant when the ref will literally have to peel off Pacquiao from Mosley. His corner or the ref will stop the fight between rounds 10-12.
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